Trend lines for Novembers, 2010-2016
(Copyright © 2016 by Wil C. Fry. Some rights reserved.)
November 2016 was our warmest November since moving to Texas, surpassing November 2012 — which at the time was labeled the warmest November in local history. The HLA (“high-low average”, averaged from daily HLAs) was 65.13°F, a five-degree jump from last year’s November, and 10 degrees higher than our coolest November (2014).
As the image above shows, November’s HLAs appeared to be on a cooling trend from 2010 to 2014 (interrupted by 2012), but the past two Novembers clearly turned that around.
It is notable that October 2016 was also the warmest October on record (see my monthly HLA table), making it two months in a row that we’ve set a monthly record. That happened last year too (September and October 2015), but is fairly rare — the previous time we saw two consecutive months set records were November and December of 2012.
Zero days reached the freezing point, which has only happened once before — in 2012. Typically, our first freezing temperature of the fall/winter occurs in mid-to-late November. November averages 1.71 days that reach the freezing point or below.
I measured 3.83 inches of rainfall in November 2016, which is our second-most in the past seven years (Nov. 2015 saw the most). Thirteen days experienced precipitation, which is tied with Nov. 2015 for the most and is well above average.
• YEAR TO DATE
With only one month remaining in 2016, a few things are fairly obvious.
HLA: 2016 is on track to be our second-warmest year (behind only 2012). December would have to be mind-blowingly warm in order for 2016 to break 2012’s overall HLA, or much cooler than average in order for 2016 to fall into third place.
FREEZING: If we make it past Dec. 6 without seeing freezing temperatures (likely), this year’s span of non-freezing days will be the longest we’ve seen — breaking the 304-day record from 2012. If we see one or fewer freezing days in December (unlikely), we’ll tie or break the record for fewest freezing days in a year (also 2012). Most likely is that 2016’s tally of freezing days will end slightly higher than 2012’s.
RAINFALL: 2016 will finish as our second-rainiest year; we’re already well-past 2010’s second-place total, but would need December to get 11 inches of rain (unprecedented) in order to beat 2015’s rainfall record. It will also end with the second-most rainy days (behind 2015) — unless December has 10 or more days with precipitation (unusual).